How to Deal with Sudan's Top Brass?

From Enough blogs Tue Dec 18 2012, 16:39:03

There's broad consensus among Sudan watchers that the country is in crisis, emanating from the 23-year rule of President Omar al-Bashir. The question is: What to do? The Center for Strategic and International Studies, or CSIS, hosted a panel discussion in D.C. last week about the ongoing crisis in Sudan, moderated by Richard Downie, deputy director and fellow of the CSIS Africa Program, and featuring EJ Hogendoorn, Africa deputy program director at International Crisis Group, and Omer Ismail, Enough Project's Sudan Advisor. The panelists' diverging views sparked a lively discussion over the future of Sudan and the most effective paths to move the country forward.

Hogendoorn presented a concise analysis of the current political situation in Sudan, noting that the National Congress Party, or NCP, the ruling party of Sudan, is in its deepest crisis since it took power by coup in 1989, largely due to Sudan's collapsing economy. The regime is becoming increasingly divided internally, with calls for reform coming from within the party as well as from Sudanese society at large. According to Hogendoorn, the status quo in Sudan is unsustainable, and President Omar al-Bashir, an indicted war criminal, is backed up against a wall.

Hogendoorn warned that unmanaged regime change-whether by an internal coup or toppling by outside forces-could lead to further chaos and violence. He advocated for a managed process of transition, stating that Bashir is the key to change in Sudan and currently has little incentive to give up power. If the international community offers him prevailing incentives, however, there is increased potential for reform. Such incentives could include relief for Sudan's immense debt, granting Sudan "highly indebted poor ...

The Enough Project's Omer Ismail agreed with Hogendoorn's analysis of the state of the NCP and the desirability of a negotiated settlement, but he disagreed with his suggested roadmap for regime change. According to Ismail, the incentives offered to Bashir in the past have not worked, and it is highly unlikely they will work now. Officials in Khartoum have a "barricade mentality"-desperation as they cling to power, as demonstrated by Qaddafi's regime and currently Assad's-and they know how to manipulate the international community for their own benefit ...

[view whole blog post ]
 See More    |     Report Abuse


You might also be interested in the following news stories:

Liberia:   Long-term Cure for Ebola - Sirleaf (guest column)
allAfrica.com
20 October 2014

As the Ebola nightmare continues in Liberia and as we battle to contain the epidemic, it is important to look beyond the immediate crisis. Many more lives will be lost before this dreadful outbreak is ... [read more]

Nigeria:   What Boko Haram Ceasefire? (news)
Premium Times
20 October 2014

Despite claims of a ceasefire between the Nigerian government and extremist sect, Boko Haram, soldiers on Sunday night shot dead 25 members of the sect during an attack on Damboa town of Borno state. [read more]

Nigeria:   Ebola Outbreak 'Defeated' in Nigeria (document)
allAfrica.com
20 October 2014

An excerpt from an address on October 19 by Margaret Chan, Director-General of the World Health Organization, to its Regional Committee for the Eastern Mediterranean: [read more]



blogAfrica is allAfrica.com's platform to help you keep an ear on the African blogosphere. We draw diverse voices from around the world who post regularly and insightfully about African issues. Bloggers, submit your blog's rss-feed!