"As for what shapes the forecast for Eritrea in particular, it winds up toward the middle of the global pack because it's a mixed bag," says Ulfelder.
"On the one hand, it's a poor country that's internationally isolated, both of which are associated with increased risk of coup attempts. On the other hand, it's a very repressive dictatorship, and regimes like that are historically no more coup-prone than fully democratic ones, other things being equal. The regime's success at quashing dissent is also reflected in the absence of any prior coup attempts, another thing that pulls Eritrea's forecast down."
The model is so far holding up, since what happened in Eritrea on Monday was not a coup; it did not depose the government and was possibly not intended to do so. ...
A worsening economic crisis may be what's pulling Eritrea closer to the brink. The UN sanctions are being felt more than ever, especially in a country where the GDP per capita is around $482, according to World Bank data.[view whole blog post ]