Berouk Mesfin, senior researcher, Conflict Prevention and Risk Analysis Division of the Institute for Security Studies in Addis Ababa, published a brief analysis titled "Where Is Eritrea Heading?" He reviews the 21 January 2013 mutiny in Asmara and then looks to the future.
He concludes that political chance in Eritrea "will most likely come in the form of an extended and bitter internal struggle within the military, which is the only organised entity in Eritrea" and added "the most likely outcome will be a new authoritarian strongman."
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