In March, the AU and the Somali National Army (SNA) launched their long-awaited offensive against Al-Shabaab. As was expected, Al-Shabaab withdrew from most areas without putting up much resistance. On the surface, the Somali government has won a huge chunk of territory back from the insurgent group. However, the facts on the ground suggest something else. It would seem that Al-Shabaab has been cut in half, with the allied forces controlling the main roads from Mogadishu to Beledweyne, and from Mogadishu to Baidoa. However, Al-Shabaab continues to ambush allied troops using these roads, and is known to cross from east to west of the main roads whenever it wants. This is made possible because the allied troops occupy the main cities on the roads, with Al-Shabaab continuing to rule some villages. For instance, when the Djiboutian-led forces captured Bulo Burte on 12 March, Al-Shabaab started laying siege to the city from all sides. It may take time for the allies to realise this, but it has already become clear: AMISOM numbers will need to be increased for it to continue to be effective and not so overstretched. Mogadishu security problems The departure of large numbers of troops from the Mogadishu [...]
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