Editor's note: This is a guest post by Michael Chishala, a Zambian writer and regular contributor to the discussions on the ZE Facebook page. Follow him on Facebook.
On 20 August 2014 (the day after the Mangango by-election), an article was published on Zambian Economist (ZE) Facebook page claiming that "...if elections were held today across the country, PF would win it comfortably because they continue to consolidate the rural vote, capitalising on their better organisation and financial resources." Furthermore, "It also means that any broadly reasonable candidate for PF in 2016 should secure re-election, provided PF do not do anything stupid between now and then." I wish to respectfully disagree with both the conclusions and reasoning in the article as follows:
1. In Zambia, it is close to impossible to make a solid prediction about a future General election based on results of parliamentary by-elections because the factors at play in the two situations are very different. In Mangango, there was a concentration of time and resources at a single point in time. Reports of money being dished out and electoral violence abounded in the media. I do not believe for one second that the results reflect a genuine PF win in Western Province. In 2016, it will not be possible for PF to spend colossal sums of money in Mangango as they did this time, nor will the top party leadership camp there for several days. The votes there are not worth the effort, compared to Lusaka, Kitwe or Ndola.
[view whole blog post
]
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
|
See More
Report Abuse