After a period of apparent quiet in the Grand North - the area that runs down from the Rwenzori Mountains to the bottom of Lake Edward and into Virunga National Park - insecurity is making the headlines again with reports of attacks, kidnappings and people fleeing villages around Oicha. This has been blamed on the ADF rebel group which has a leadership of radical Islamic Ugandans. Last January the Congolese army, FARDC, launched Operation Sukola against the ADF after a high-profile victory against M23 near Goma. Prior to this MONUSCO had been preparing to take on the rebels by scoping logistics, organising awareness programmes in various towns and villages and intelligence activities. The sudden launch of Sukola forced their hand before these activities were completed. A very high-level diplomatic source told me that in Kinshasa it was presented as a 'fait accompli' along the lines of: "you take the FDLR we'll take the ADF." I warned at the time that any purely military campaign against the ADF risked the probability that many of the local fighters would just melt back into the communities from whence they came. In Beni this was evident from the beginning of the military operation. Only [...]
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