Global Trends 2030

From The Official Blog of Amb. David H. Shinn Thu Dec 13 2012, 11:22:00

The U.S. National Intelligence Council released its Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds in December 2012. The intelligence study looks at the likely state of the planet in 2030. There is a brief section devoted to Sub-Saharan Africa; several of its conclusions follow.

The megatrends of population growth without aging, rapid urbanization, and, to some extent, middle class expansion will significantly shape the trajectories of most African countries and at least a few--particularly in the climate change-threatened Sahel and Sahara regions--will be sharply challenged by resource scarcities.

Education will be a game-changer for those African countries that not only offer nominally widespread schooling but ensure that qualified teachers are in classrooms--currently lacking across the continent.

Commodity-exporting countries need to be wary that increased volatility in global markets is probably ahead and will challenge their fiscal viability and stability if they do not work to diversify their economies.

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